Euro-limpacs Deliverables

ABSTRACT - DELIVERABLE 113

Report on running CLUAM runs through INCA-N

Climate change will affect water quality in many different ways. Changes in temperatures and rainfall amounts and patterns will affect the physical characteristics of hydrologic systems and hence cause water quality changes. Climate change on a local level is likely to affect land use and thus cause another set of changes. A number of attempts to model these changes have been made within the Euro-limpacs Project (see e.g. Wade, 2006). However, climate change is likely to cause another set of pressures on agricultural land use quite apart from change in local meteorology. The world agricultural system is very interconnected, and the positive and negative effects of climate change all over the world will translate into changes in prices and demand for agricultural products in any given area. This in turn will affect farmers’ decisions on what crops to grow and thus land use and water quality. Future socio-economic developments such as population change, economic growth, and policies on global trade and finance will also affect market conditions and hence land use. This report is an attempt to explore the consequences of such changes for water quality in a lowland catchment, the River Kennet in southern England.

Predictions of agricultural change due to climate change and socio-economic change have already been made for four UK catchments: the Kennet; Wye; Tamar; and Conwy (Jones and Tranter, 2006). These predictions used the Reading Climate and Land-Use Allocation Model (CLUAM), which is a well-established linear programming model of agriculture in England and Wales. This was adapted to make change geographically explicit in the four catchments. Climate change and socio-economic change were both driven by scenarios proposed by the Inter-Governmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), and various other models were used to convert these into inputs to CLUAM, which in turn was used to calculate the effects on land use. The procedure is described in outline below and in more detail by Jones and Tranter (2006).

In this report the INCA-N model is applied to the results generated by the CLUAM to calculate the effects on flows and nitrate and ammonium concentrations in the River Kennet. The difficulties and uncertainties of making such assessments are discussed, and the results are compared with previous attempts to model the effects of climate change on the River Kennet.

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